Marc's Mortgage Matter's

People born before 1946 were called The Silent generation.

People born between 1946 and 1964 are called The Baby Boomers.

People born between 1965 and 1979 are called Generation X.

And people born between 1980 and 2010 are called Generation Y.
Why do we call the last group Generation Y?
Y should I get a job?
Y should I leave home and find my own place?
Y should I get a car when I can borrow yours?
Y should I clean my room?
Y should I wash and iron my own clothes?
Y should I buy any food?

Lowering interest rates toward 0% was meant to:

  • re-inflate the risk appetites of income-centric investors, lenders, and borrowers
  • restore market liquidity for risky assets, whether financial or real
  • thereby ignite economic growth.

However, none of the above has arguably recovered to pre-crisis conditions. Instead, the private sector has fled for safety, while governments have crowded it out to do the following:

  • issued unaffordable new debt, exhausting future latitude for expansionary fiscal policy
  • left no more room to cut nominal interest rates, as accommodative monetary policy.

We are now truly cornered. We are now all Japanese.

Thank you.

"I had amnesia once--or maybe twice." One's mental health is nothing to joke about, and long days can make folks pretty sleepy. We don't listen as attentively in the third hour of an endless meeting as we did during the first. Apparently while we sleep we go through a 90-minute period for the five stages of sleep, and researchers have found something similar during waking hours: moving from higher to lower alertness every 90 minutes. But we override the signals with sugar, coffee, and stress. Some employers have begun providing fitness facilities, energy-rich food, and even napping pods. See? The thought of a "napping pod" has taken your mind entirely off of the debt crisis! But before we talk debt...

One reader wrote, "As far as I can tell, from over 20 years of experience in this business, rejection of virtually all title claims by the insurer has been standard operating procedure. This is not a new phenomenon. In fact, a similarly jaded former Chairman of a small Midwestern thrift (long since deceased) once was heard to say that title insurance is "insuring pig iron underwater...with a rust exclusion". The economics of title insurance are vastly different from ordinary insurance with upwards of 80% of all premiums being paid to title agents merely for delivering the business. Only about 5% of all premium income is allocated to paying losses (the rest is administrative expense-such as lawyers to fight claims). The economics of casualty insurance, on the other hand, are reversed. There is rarely accountability between the purchaser of title insurance and the person making a claim (consider in many states the seller buys the insurance), but it's the buyer (or lender) who will have to pursue the claim. As a result, there is no need to have a good claims paying history since the buyers of their insurance never have to deal with a claim denial. In fact, if you think about it, if the title company does a proper search and knows the applicable law, the risk of loss should be zero. It is not as if a random occurrence like a tornado can hit your title and cause it to change. Title insurers are really just insuring their own negligence (and malfeasance) on the front end. Title losses were covered up by rising real estate values generally during the first half of the 2000's. Now, mortgage holders are seeking to hold title insurers liable for title losses whenever possible, many of which are really the result of fraud. Title claim volume has no doubt increased, so title insurers are just continuing their business model (of not paying claims easily) in more visible fashion."

And Brian Levy from Katten & Temple, LLP, wrote, "The title issue is quite similar to the mortgage repurchase discussions that have been occurring over the past few years. Mortgage losses drive repurchases much in the same way that fraud can drive up title claims and rising real estate values can mask the underlying liability for both. Nearly 50% of my current work is in defending mortgage originators from repurchase claims that range from legitimate fraud by the borrower to immaterial claims that the originator failed to verify the source of $50 of closing funds or failed to properly document something that was self-evident. One of the basic problems I face is that once a position is taken by an investor that a representation or warranty violation has occurred, there is no room for compromise; only a full repurchase will resolve the problem regardless of any connection between the violation and the loss. That is a recipe for litigation unless high level strategic negotiation can be implemented.

"Title insurance, however, is a bargained for risk transfer. Mortgage loan sale agreement rep and warrants, on the other hand, were never intended to be used to pass the entire risk of loss back to the originator except in extreme cases. In fact, true sale opinions demanded that be the case, lest sale agreements were viewed with the dreaded "recourse". Rather, the intent of the representation and warranties was to insure that a properly underwritten loan was delivered. The difference is subtle, but critical from a risk allocation standpoint. Case in point: stated income loans. How can investors that desired to purchase loans without income verification come back to originators for losses based on the fact that the income was inaccurate? Clearly, that risk transfer was not bargained for and, I would argue (and have in many instances), was specifically waived by the investor. Title insurers will likely take the position that many of the claims being brought today are really fraud issues for which they should have no liability (straw buyers, id theft etc.). So, they need to fight all claims to separate the wheat from the chaff. Likewise, the standoffs on repurchase issues generally are not resolved between investor and originator without escalation to a third party or legal counsel. Today, everyone is playing a game of "hot potato" by trying to pass losses to someone else, but there is a paucity of people with authority or skill to find a reasonable compromise and there is no generally accepted roadmap to follow to reach those resolutions. Nevertheless, I have found that with patience, clever and principled negotiation skills and a healthy dose of persistence that negotiated resolution of these disputes is possible both on the title front and the repurchase front." (Katten&Temple)

 

blind_in_il

The other night a buddy driving to the Paul McCartney concert at Wrigley Field. (It was excellent.) Upon exiting at Addison St. we saw this license plate while waiting to turn. All I had was a cellphone, so forgive the poor picture quality. This is a handicapped license plate (note wheelchair emblem on left) and the plate says BLIND. I wonder who was driving?

The cacophony generated by the fight to raise the debt ceiling limit produced an attractive nuisance for a while. A deal was struck and signed into place... and when the dust settled, there was nothing to look at except a picture of an economy perhaps teetering on the edge of a new recession, without the prospect of immediate fiscal or monetary assistance to prop it up.

Markets reacted perhaps in the only way they could: Panic. Last week we noted that we expected "a bit of volatility in the market" this week, but got far more than we bargained for. In what appeared to be a delayed response to the accumulated information of a couple of dismal GDP figures last Friday, compounded by a worrisome report on manufacturing and consumer spending early this week, a huge stock market rout on Thursday produced a like-size flight-to-safety rally in Treasuries, driving mortgage rates down. The demand for a safe investing haven even turned some short-term Treasury yields negative for a time, actually costing investors money for a place to park cash.

In an unusual twist and one reflective of the difficult investing environment, at least one major moneycenter bank -- Bank of New York Mellon -- announced that there would now be a 0.13 percent fee for institutional clients who have more than $50 million on deposit. The cost of managing this cash on deposit would normally be offset by some return on investments the bank would make, but profitable short-term investing opportunities are few and far between. So-called "hot money" has been rushing from money market funds to short-term treasuries to deposit accounts looking for a place to hide from uncertain markets; this will no doubt be a deterrent to continuing that practice. So far, no other banks have yet followed suit. That an investor might get a negative rate of return is a happenstance of investing, but a guaranteed loss of capital in return for safety makes stuffing cash in the mattress a real consideration.

After a tremendous political fight, in exchange for being able to borrow more money at the moment, the debt ceiling agreement signed on Tuesday calls for spending cuts over the next ten years. This suggests that there won't be much in the way of additional spending to push economic growth forward anytime soon, and this in turn might exacerbate a slower recovery with a lower potential for inflation. Entities on both sides of the aisle expressed unhappiness about the terms of the deal. As far as revenues go, a growing economy will produce far more in the way of this then would any changes to marginal tax rates for some or even closing tax "loopholes". Perhaps the Congress might consider ways to foster confidence by businesses, so that they will start to hire again and boost the economy.

One thing that would produce a strong upward economic kick would be more money in the pockets of consumers. This should have already been happening, given the 22% fall in oil prices from May's $115/bbl peak to a $91 level early this week (it is lower at the moment). However, over that same period, the price of a gallon of gasoline has only declined by about 6% to about $3.68 gallon; by our reckoning, the last time oil was at about $92/bbl (December 2010), gas was $2.93 a gallon (data courtesy EIA), so many billions of dollars which might power the economy forward are instead powering only the family car at the moment. Perhaps someone might take a look to see why gas prices are so stubbornly high, despite a slump in oil and even additional supply coming from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve?

With the markets on edge there was great concern that Friday's employment report would be dismal. In fact, it was a pleasant surprise to the upside. Forecasts called for about 90,000 new hires during the month, but 117,000 new jobs were filled. Perhaps as important was the upward revision to both May and June, adding 56,000 new jobs to the very weak numbers originally reported during those months. The nation's rate of unemployment slipped to 9.1%, and average hourly earnings climbed by 0.4% for the month after having no gain the month prior. However, it's worth noting that the nation's labor force participation rate -- the percentage of folks actively seeking a job -- fell to just 63.9%. This suggests that many discouraged workers have simply given up looking for work and is the lowest participation rate since 1984. The lack of job seekiers is the only thing which is keeping the official unemployment rate from rising.

After the rough and tumble day on Thursday, the slightly better than expected employment cheered the markets somewhat, and important to our concerns, drove the yield for the 10-year Treasury rise upward by some 17 basis points from Thursday's closing yield. This tempers to a great degree the strong downdraft in rates which began last week. That said, there is still some downward pull as we write this at the end of frenetic week, but considerably less than there was to close the day on Thursday or to start the day on Friday.

Next week, mortgage rates will begin the week still trending downward. On Tuesday, there is a Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting; after this week, it's a reasonable assumption that they will be quite concerned about the fragile market psyche. We expect that the release which will accompany the meeting's close will nod toward modest growth, levelling inflation trends and troubles overseas. The Fed will of course say it is watching carefully and will employ necessary means to support the economy if it believes that it needs to do so, but will not tip their hand as to the form or timing of any such support, at least not yet. Other than that, a pretty light data calendar is on tap and we expect that mortgage rates will end the week perhaps unchanged from this week's figures.

A married couple of many years are in bed together, and the woman feels the husband's hand under her leg, says "Oh boy, this is going to be a pleasant evening."

A little bit later she feels his hand under her behind, and says, "Now, this is like the old days!"

Finally, she feels his hand around her thigh, but then everything stops.

She asks, "Irving, what happened?"

He says, "I found the remote."


Posted by Marc (Moshe) Preger on August 7th, 2011 10:24 AMPost a Comment (0)

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